India, the world's fifth largest economy in the world, is likely to overtake Japan to become the world's third-largest economy with a GDP of $7.3 trillion by 2030, S&P Global Market Intelligence said in its latest issue of PMI. After two years of rapid economic growth in 2021 and 2022, the Indian economy has continued to show sustained strong growth during the 2023 calendar year. India's gross domestic product (GDP) is expected to grow 6.2-6.3 per cent in the fiscal year ending in March 2024, being the fastest-growing major economy this fiscal year.
S&P Global Ratings has forecast India's economy to shrink by 5 per cent in the current fiscal. It, however, has projected GDP growth to be 8.5 per cent in 2021-22 and 6.5 per cent in 2022-23.
The Reserve Bank is likely to maintain status quo on interest rates in its forthcoming monetary policy review but may change the stance in view of retail inflation piercing its upper tolerance limit, global uncertainties created by the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war, and the urgency to protect and boost growth, feel experts. The RBI governor-headed rate setting panel -- Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) -- will be holding its first meeting of the 2022-23 fiscal from April 6 to 8. The outcome will be announced on April 8.
RBI said aggregate demand during the year so far suggests that the shock to consumption is severe, and it will take quite some time to mend and regain the pre-COVID-19 momentum.
A below-normal monsoon is likely to drag down the food output with India's agricultural GDP growth likely to slump to 0.8 pc in the current fiscal, says a report by the Japanese brokerage firm Nomura.
The RBI on Wednesday cautioned that while the Indian economy appears capable of weathering the deterioration in geopolitical conditions amid the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war, it faces headwinds from global spillovers from geopolitical tensions, elevated commodity prices and moderating external demand. The RBI, however, did not tinker with the GDP growth projection made in April. It had slashed the GDP growth projection for the fiscal 2022-23 to 7.2 per cent from its earlier forecast of 7.8 per cent.
The bulk of the incremental profits will come from oil & gas and automobile sectors.
Revising India's GDP upwards by 0.3 per cent to 6.3 per cent in 2015, Asian Development Bank (ADB) has said the economy shows a new promise of turnaround after the election brought a stable government in May.
India's GDP is estimated to contract by a record 7.7 per cent during 2020-21 as the COVID-19 pandemic severely hit the key manufacturing and services segments, as per government projections released on Thursday. Amid overall decline in economic activities, some respite was provided by the agriculture sector and utility services like power and gas supply, which have been projected to post positive growth during the current fiscal ending March 2021.
Without accounting for refunds, however, the collection contracted 5.4 per cent, indicating muted economic activity as the Covid-19 pandemic and subsequent curbs paralysed most sectors.
India's exports declined by 2.83 per cent to $33.90 billion in November this year compared to $34.89 billion a year ago, government data released on Friday showed. Imports also declined to $54.48 billion in the month under consideration, as against $56.95 billion recorded in November 2022.
'The rate cut could have been higher in the current economic conditions which would have had a stronger impact on business sentiment and spurred investment in a big way.'
Benchmark equity indices Sensex and Nifty closed higher by more than half a per cent on Wednesday following buying in IT, financial and oil stocks after the RBI slowed down the pace of interest rate hikes. Ending its two-day slide, the 30-share BSE Sensex rebounded by 377.75 points or 0.63 per cent to close at 60,663.79 with 24 of its constituents posting gains. The broader Nifty of the NSE spurted by 150.20 points or 0.85 per cent to settle at 17,871.70, riding on a rally in Adani Enterprises, Adani Ports and HDFC Life.
India's economy will do well once vaccination reaches a critical mass as pent up demand, global recovery and easy financial conditions will boost activities, RBI's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) member Ashima Goyal said on Tuesday.
The broader NSE Nifty too slipped by 9.50 points, or 0.09 per cent, to end at 10,118.25
Indian companies are planning to increase investments in the new year to expand capacity, acquire companies, and go on a hiring spree, a survey of top executives showed. They, however, cited rising costs, weak consumer demand, and increasing interest rates as major concerns for 2023 which may impact their plans.
Standard & Poor's, which has threatened to downgrade the country's sovereign rating to junk, sees economic growth improving.
Standard & Poor's, which has threatened to downgrade the country's sovereign rating to junk, sees economic growth improving.
Amid uncertainties arising out of the second wave of COVID-19, the Reserve Bank on Thursday said that a durable revival of private consumption and investment would be critical for sustaining economic growth post-pandemic. Observing that 2020-21 has left a scar on the economy, RBI in its annual report said, "in the midst of the second wave as 2021-22 commences, pervasive despair is being lifted by cautious optimism built up by vaccination drives." The second wave of the pandemic has prompted revision of growth projections for the current fiscal and the consensus appears to be gravitating towards RBI's forecast of 10.5 per cent, the report added.
As many as seven of eight core industries saw a contraction in output in September.
With rest of the world showing no signs of growth and headwinds ahead for US growth, chances are that we might continue to see central banks pumping money into their economies
'We forecast real GDP growth to moderate to 6.7 per cent in the year ending March 2018.' 'However, as disruption fades, we expect to see a rebound in real GDP growth to 7.5 per cent in the next fiscal year.'
A likely easing in inflationary pressures in the forthcoming months will reopen the window for the RBI to once again prioritise growth and ease its interest rates.
The NSE Nifty, after shuttling between 10,698.35 and 10,587.50, finished the session 91.50 points, or 0.86 per cent higher at 10,684.65.
The Nifty Bank index has come off 15 per cent from its peak in February, underperforming the benchmark Nifty which is down 6%.
Analysts and economists have hailed the fiscal projections in the interim Budget, saying the lower fiscal deficit forecast shows that the government, even in an election year, is serious about fiscal consolidation and that the numbers look achievable. According to Devendra Kumar Pant, the chief economist at India Ratings, the two broad themes of the interim Budget are fiscal consolidation and stepping up focus on agriculture/rural to course correct, to some extent, the differential benefits of the ongoing economic growth that's tilted in favour of upper-income bracket/urban households. The projected fiscal deficit numbers for FY24 and FY25 suggest that the government is serious about achieving the fiscal consolidation path of 4.5 per cent fiscal deficit by FY26, and given the nominal GDP growth assumption and revenue buoyancy, the target appears plausible, Pant said in a note.
The broader NSE Nifty fell 78.75 points, or 0.70 per cent, to close at 11,234.55.
Banking, realty and capital goods sectors-- the sectors which are more interest sensitive and hence battered for long now--were the winners today.
The Indian economy remains on track to regain its position as the world's fastest-growing major economy after official estimates on Friday put the expansion at a tempered 9.2 per cent this fiscal amid concerns over the impact of a resurgent virus on the fragile recovery. The growth in the gross domestic product (GDP) of 9.2 per cent in April 2021 to March 2022 fiscal (FY 2021-22) given by the National Statistical Office (NSO) in its first advance estimate compares with 9.5 per cent expansion forecast by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) last month. The economy had contracted by 7.3 per cent in the previous financial year.
Global rating agency Standard and Poor's on Wednesday cautioned that large deficit economies including India could face more economic problems in the near term.
Even with the possible expenditure roll-overs and off-budget financing, the fiscal deficit target will not be met. The FRBM Act, after its amendment in 2018, allows a fiscal deficit slippage of not more than 0.5 per cent for any given year, provided there are justifications. These justifications include war, national security, severe collapse in the agriculture sector, a major natural calamity, big structural economic reforms, or the decline in real output growth of a quarter by at least 3 percentage points below its average of the previous four quarters.
While the forecast was still lower than what we have been recording over the last few years, it instilled a false sense of comfort that India might still weather the storm better than many other countries.
The government has limited room to reduce expenditure without further weakening growth, it noted.
Bank of America Securities-Merrill Lynch raised its growth forecast to 6.3 per cent from 5.3 per cent for the current fiscal. BAS-ML has also revised the country's growth projection to 7.3 per cent for the next fiscal from 7.1 per cent earlier.
India will also play an increasingly important role as one of the Asia-Pacific region's major economic growth engines, helping to drive Asian regional trade and investment flows.
When FM was that the third-quarter GDP data was not in line with his ministry's optimism, he had said he relied on the advice of his advisors.
Macroeconomic data announcements, global trends and trading activity of foreign investors would guide momentum in the equity market this week, analysts said. Markets ended a five-week losing streak and gained nearly a per cent last week, helped by a sharp rebound on Friday. Last week, the BSE benchmark jumped 500.65 points or 0.77 per cent and the Nifty gained 169.5 points or 0.87 per cent.
If the current restrictions remain in place until the end of May, we estimate that the cumulative loss of activity could amount to around $10.5 billion, or around 0.34 percentage point (pp) of annual nominal gross domestic product, say Barclays economists.
Equity benchmark Sensex declined over 215 points on Wednesday, weighed by losses in index heavyweight Reliance Industries, Bajaj Finserv and Tata Steel, after the Reserve Bank raised the key interest rate by 35 basis points. Subdued Asian markets and continued selling by foreign investors also weighed on sentiment, traders said. Extending its losses for the fourth straight session, the 30-share BSE Sensex ended 215.68 points or 0.34 per cent lower at 62,410.68.
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